The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

LIU Yimin  ZHANG Renhe  YIN Yonghong  NIU Tao 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(3):355-365

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…  相似文献   

Establishment of apparent quantum yield and maximum ecosystem assimilation on Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem     

XU Lingling  ZHANG Xianzhou  SHI Peili  YU Guirui 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(Z1)

The alpine meadow is widely distributed on the Tibetan Plateau with an area of about 1.2×106kn2. Damxung County, located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, is the place covered with this typical vegetation. An open-path eddy covariance system was set up in Damxung rangeland station to measure the carbon flux of alpine meadow from July to October,2003. The continuous carbon flux data were used to analyze the relationship between net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), as well as the seasonal patterns of apparent quantum yield (α) and maximum ecosystem assimilation (Pmax).Results showed that the daytime NEE fitted fairly well with the PAR in a rectangular hyperbola function, with α declining in the order of peak growth period (0.0244 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR) ＞early growth period ＞ seed maturing period ＞ withering period (0.0098 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR).The Pmax did not change greatly during the first three periods, with an average of 0.433mgCO2· m-2· s-1, i.e. 9.829 μmolCO2· m-2· s-1. However, during the withering period, Pmax was only 0.35 mgCO2 · m-2 · s-1, i.e. 7.945 μmolCO2 · m-2 · s-1. Compared with other grassland ecosystems, the α of the Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem was much lower.  相似文献   

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion     

Eric Blanger  Alain Vincent 《Journal of Hydrology》2005,300(1-4):114-125

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.  相似文献   

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Thorsten Wagener  Hoshin V. Gupta 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(6):378-387

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.  相似文献   

Assimilation and Fractional Crystallization Controlled by Transport Process of Crustal Melt: Implications from an Alkali Basalt-Dacite Suite from Rishiri Volcano, Japan   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

KURITANI  TAKESHI; KITAGAWA  HIROSHI; NAKAMURA  EIZO 《Journal of Petrology》2005,46(7):1421-1442

Mechanisms of fractional crystallization with simultaneous crustalassimilation (AFC) are examined for the Kutsugata and Tanetomilavas, an alkali basalt–dacite suite erupted sequentiallyfrom Rishiri Volcano, northern Japan. The major element variationswithin the suite can be explained by boundary layer fractionation;that is, mixing of a magma in the main part of the magma bodywith a fractionated interstitial melt transported from the mushyboundary layer at the floor. Systematic variations in SiO₂ correlatewith variations in the Pb, Sr and Nd isotopic compositions ofthe lavas. The geochemical variations of the lavas are explainedby a constant and relatively low ratio of assimilated mass tocrystallized mass (‘r value’). In the magma chamberin which the Kutsugata and Tanetomi magmas evolved, a strongthermal gradient was present and it is suggested that the marginalpart of the reservoir was completely solidified. The assimilantwas transported by crack flow from the partially fused floorcrust to the partially crystallized floor mush zone throughfractures in the solidified margin, formed mainly by thermalstresses resulting from cooling of the solidified margin andheating of the crust. The crustal melt was then mixed with thefractionated interstitial melt in the mushy zone, and the mixedmelt was further transported by compositional convection tothe main magma, causing its geochemical evolution to be characteristicof AFC. The volume flux of the assimilant from the crust tothe magma chamber is suggested to have decreased progressivelywith time (proportional to t^–1/2), and was about 3 x 10^–2m/year at t = 10 years and 1 x 10^–2 m/year at t = 100years. It has been commonly considered that the heat balancebetween magmas and the surrounding crust controls the couplingof assimilation and fractional crystallization processes (i.e.absolute value of r). However, it is inferred from this studythat the ratio of assimilated mass to crystallized mass canbe controlled by the transport process of the assimilant fromthe crust to magma chambers. KEY WORDS: assimilation and fractional crystallization; mass balance model; magma chamber; melt transport; Pb isotope  相似文献   

Ekman模型时间变化风应力系数的伴随参数估计     

李国庆  高艳秋  张继才 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(5):979-993

本文基于时间分布参数设置,利用伴随同化方法,反演了Ekman模型中随时间变化的风应力拖曳系数,并在孪生实验和实际实验中对该方法进行了验证。在孪生实验中,研究了参数反演结果对不同影响因素的响应,包括:风速分布、风应力系数分布、风应力系数初始猜测值、风应力系数独立变量个数、观测数据误差和观测的深度。孪生实验结果验证了伴随同化方法反演Ekman模型中时变风应力系数的有效性,具体包括如下五个方面结论:1)不同风速分布下均能成功反演出不同风应力拖曳系数分布; 2)反演结果对初始猜测值较为敏感,风应力系数初始猜测值越接近给定值,反演结果越好;3)风应力系数独立点个数的选取会显著影响反演结果,合理的选择有利于提高反演效率及减小观测数据误差;4)观测误差能够影响反演结果,观测数据误差在20%以下时能取得合理的反演结果; 5)反演结果对观测数据的表层和次表层流速更为敏感,这是由Ekman流的物理性质决定的。实际实验,利用百慕大锚系试验平台的风速和流速数据,去除周期性潮流和地转流成分后得到Ekman流成分,并作为观测输入到该同化模型,反演出了适用于该区域和该时段的随时间变化的风应力系数。通过比较模拟流速和观测流速,证明利用伴随同化方法能从实测数据中反演出合理的时变风应力系数,对于海洋模型风应力系数的确定是一项有益的尝试。  相似文献   

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.  相似文献   

Groundwater contaminant source identification based on iterative local update ensemble smoother          下载免费PDF全文

YANG Ai-lin  JIANG Si-min  LIU Jin-bing  JIANG Qian-yun  ZHOU Ting  ZHANG Wen 《地下水科学与工程》2020,8(1):1-9

Identification of the location and intensity of groundwater pollution source contributes to the effect of pollution remediation, and is called groundwater contaminant source identifcation. This is a kind of typical groundwater inverse problem, and the solution is usually ill-posed. Especially considering the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity field, the identification process is more challenging. In this paper, the solution framework of groundwater contaminant source identification is composed with groundwater pollutant transport model (MT3DMS) and a data assimilation method (Iterative local update ensemble smoother, ILUES). In addition, Karhunen-Loève expansion technique is adopted as a PCA method to realize dimension reduction. In practical problems, the geostatistical method is usually used to characterize the hydraulic conductivity feld, and only the contaminant source information is inversely calculated in the identifcation process. In this study, the identification of contaminant source information under Kriging K-field is compared with simultaneous identification of source information and K-field. The results indicate that it is necessary to carry out simultaneous identification under heterogeneous site, and ILUES has good performance in solving high-dimensional parameter inversion problems.  相似文献   

集合卡尔曼滤波同化中雷达位置的敏感性研究     

乔小湜  闵锦忠  王世璋 《气象学报》2016,74(5):796-814

针对对流尺度集合卡尔曼滤波（EnKF）雷达资料同化中雷达位置对同化的影响进行研究。为了考察强对流出现在雷达不同方位时集合卡尔曼滤波同化雷达资料的能力,以一个理想风暴为例,设计了8个均匀分布在模拟区域周围的模拟雷达进行试验。单雷达同化试验中,初期同化对雷达位置较敏感,而十几个循环后对雷达方位的敏感性降低。造成初期同化效果较差的雷达观测位于模拟区域正南和正北方向,这两部雷达与模拟区域中心的连线垂直于风暴移动方向（即环境气流的方向）。双雷达试验的结果表明,正东、正南、正西和正北方向的雷达组合观测会使同化初期误差较大,这说明并不是所有与风暴连线成90°的雷达组合都能在短时同化中得到合理的分析结果,还需要都处于模拟区域对角线上（即与环境气流成45°夹角）,同化效果才较好。短时同化后的确定性预报结果表明,较大分析误差也会导致较大预报误差。这些分析误差主要是由于同化初期不准确的集合平均场驱动出的不合理的背景误差协方差造成的。当背景场随着同化循环得到改进后,驱动出的合理的背景误差协方差使得不同位置雷达同化造成的差异逐步减小。基于上述结果,引入迭代集合均方根滤波（iEnSRF）算法,结果显示使用该算法后,雷达位置对同化效果的影响减小,同化不同位置的雷达资料均能有效降低分析和预报误差。   相似文献   

变分同化框架通过背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束的研究进展   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王瑞春  龚建东 《气象》2016,42(9):1033-1044

通过背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束是变分同化框架设计的重要环节。它不仅帮助实现变量间的协同分析,提高观测使用效率,还能改善变分极小化问题的性状。本文在系统梳理通过背景误差协方差引入动力平衡约束的方式、流程的基础上,对求解目前全球和有限区域变分同化系统普遍采用的准地转平衡和静力平衡约束的共性问题和存在的不足作了归纳总结。分析了求解准地转平衡约束的三类方案:动力平衡方程方案、统计方案和动力-统计相结合方案的优缺点。对照比较了不同垂直离散方案下求解静力平衡约束时遇到的欠定问题的表现以及解决途径。最后,展望了基于背景误差协方差构建动力平衡约束在赤道等特殊地区、高分辨率同化系统、以及集合-变分混合同化系统发展中面临的挑战和机遇。  相似文献